Covid Report for Family

Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

• This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be that reported the day prior.
• The table of contents above summarizes the major sections and can be used to jump to those sections.
• Each major section is then divided into tabs to allow you to more easily shuffle between geographies and metrics.
  • If you open on your phone, I don’t believe the tabs will work, so you’ll just see the page as one long, continuous document.
• More detailed descriptions and context can be found in each section.

Growth rates

Heat maps

• The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
• The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
• The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
• The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
  • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
  • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
  • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

• This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
  • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
• Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
  • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
  • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

• This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
• For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
  • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

State	Cases Per Million
New York	12,724
New Jersey	9,998
Massachusetts	5,751
Connecticut	5,557
Louisiana	5,275
Rhode Island	4,804
District of Columbia	4,147
Michigan	3,196
Delaware	2,818
Pennsylvania	2,656
Illinois	2,486
Maryland	2,263
South Dakota	1,904
Colorado	1,754
Georgia	1,737
Indiana	1,735
Washington	1,600
Mississippi	1,516
Vermont	1,307
Florida	1,259
Nevada	1,243
Ohio	1,105
New Hampshire	1,064
Virginia	1,053
Alabama	1,035
Tennessee	1,027
Iowa	1,006
Utah	1,002
Missouri	946
New Mexico	939
Idaho	916
South Carolina	862
California	857
Nebraska	851
North Dakota	822
Wisconsin	772
Kansas	697
Arizona	695
Texas	691
Kentucky	682
Oklahoma	677
Arkansas	653
Maine	650
North Carolina	644
Wyoming	547
West Virginia	506
Oregon	463
Minnesota	437
Alaska	436
Hawaii	408
Montana	405
Puerto Rico	392
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

State	New Cases Per Million
New Jersey	388
New York	306
Rhode Island	287
Connecticut	281
Massachusetts	253
District of Columbia	213
Delaware	144
Maryland	116
Ohio	108
Illinois	103
South Dakota	103
Pennsylvania	101
Louisiana	100
Iowa	89
North Dakota	82
Mississippi	80
Indiana	75
Nebraska	74
Michigan	65
Colorado	61
Virginia	58
Georgia	56
New Mexico	41
Utah	41
Kentucky	39
New Hampshire	39
California	37
Florida	35
Alabama	34
Kansas	34
Nevada	33
Washington	32
Arkansas	30
Missouri	28
North Carolina	28
Tennessee	28
Arizona	25
Wisconsin	25
West Virginia	24
Minnesota	23
South Carolina	22
Texas	22
Puerto Rico	19
Vermont	19
Oklahoma	18
Idaho	13
Oregon	13
Maine	11
Hawaii	7
Wyoming	6
Alaska	5
Montana	3
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

State	Deaths Per Million
New York	737
New Jersey	492
Connecticut	373
Louisiana	285
Massachusetts	262
Michigan	246
District of Columbia	148
Rhode Island	146
Illinois	107
Pennsylvania	106
Washington	86
Maryland	85
Indiana	84
Colorado	77
Delaware	73
Georgia	72
Vermont	60
Mississippi	56
Nevada	52
Ohio	43
Wisconsin	39
Florida	38
Oklahoma	36
Virginia	35
Kansas	34
Kentucky	34
Alabama	33
Missouri	32
California	30
New Hampshire	30
New Mexico	27
Arizona	26
Idaho	26
Maine	26
Iowa	25
Minnesota	25
South Carolina	24
Tennessee	23
Texas	18
Nebraska	17
North Carolina	17
North Dakota	17
Oregon	17
West Virginia	14
Arkansas	13
Puerto Rico	13
Montana	11
Alaska	9
Utah	8
Hawaii	7
South Dakota	7
Wyoming	3
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

State	New Deaths Per Million
Connecticut	27
New York	26
New Jersey	20
Massachusetts	19
Rhode Island	11
District of Columbia	8
Louisiana	8
Michigan	8
Pennsylvania	8
Illinois	5
Maryland	5
Colorado	3
Delaware	3
Georgia	3
Mississippi	3
Indiana	2
Ohio	2
Virginia	2
Washington	2
California	1
Florida	1
Iowa	1
Kansas	1
Kentucky	1
Maine	1
Minnesota	1
Montana	1
Nebraska	1
Nevada	1
New Hampshire	1
New Mexico	1
North Dakota	1
Vermont	1
West Virginia	1
Wisconsin	1
Alabama	0
Alaska	0
Arizona	0
Arkansas	0
Hawaii	0
Idaho	0
Missouri	0
North Carolina	0
Oklahoma	0
Oregon	0
South Carolina	0
South Dakota	0
Tennessee	0
Texas	0
Utah	0
Wyoming	0
Puerto Rico	-1
American Samoa	NA
Guam	NA
Northern Mariana Islands	NA
Virgin Islands	NA

Counties

• This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
  • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
• In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Cases Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
New York	New York	84,003	1	99
Marion	Ohio	31,847	2	99
Rockland	New York	29,028	3	99
Westchester	New York	25,122	4	99
Nassau	New York	22,608	5	99
Davidson	Tennessee	2,523	201	93
Richland	South Carolina	1,580	402	87
Pierce	Washington	1,319	488	84
York	South Carolina	566	1173	62
Orange	California	528	1238	60

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

County	State	Deaths Per Million	Raw Ranking	Percentile
New York	New York	6,145	1	99
Randolph	Georgia	2,213	2	99
Terrell	Georgia	2,110	3	99
Nassau	New York	1,207	4	99
Dougherty	Georgia	1,114	5	99
Pierce	Washington	38	662	78
Richland	South Carolina	34	713	77
Davidson	Tennessee	29	784	75
York	South Carolina	11	1095	65
Orange	California	10	1099	65

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

• This section shows the raw counts over time for the U.S., our states, and our counties for four categories:
  • Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
  • New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new cases, to help better visualize the peak.
  • Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
  • New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
    • For the U.S. and states, a trendline shows the rolling 7-day average of new deaths, to help better visualize the peak.

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons

• This section is a work in progress. It’s exploring what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
  • The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
    • So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
    • Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens or declines in relation to the no-order group. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
    • As states start rescending their orders, I’ll put them back into the no-order group, so the no-order group should beging to expand again.
  • The second plot tracks progress of states by the number of days since orders have been in effect. It includes only those states with orders and shows their average new case growth rate (a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates) based on how long it’s been since the order went into effect. Again, the size of the dots show how many states are included in each point – i.e., as you go further right, the dots are smaller because less states are that far past their order.
    • I’m working on how to add a baseline to this chart to compare to states without orders, but that’s challenging because there’s no way to fully align timing.